Australia's semaglutide shortage in 2022 caused a 17% drop in prescriptions, pushing 53% more patients to dulaglutide — which then also faced shortages.
119,069 fewer prescriptionsThe number of semaglutide prescriptions that went unfilled in Australia over just 4 months due to supply shortages in 2022.
What the researchers found
When semaglutide supply shortages hit Australia in 2022, prescriptions dropped 17% while dulaglutide prescriptions surged 53% as doctors switched patients to the available alternative. The shortages resulted in approximately 119,069 fewer semaglutide prescriptions than predicted over a 4-month period. When dulaglutide also experienced shortages shortly after, its prescriptions dropped 17% as well, leaving type 2 diabetes patients with limited GLP-1 agonist options.
Why it matters
The GLP-1 agonist shortage affected millions of diabetes patients worldwide, and this Australian data quantifies the real-world impact. When one drug becomes unavailable, the surge in demand for alternatives can trigger cascading shortages. This pattern highlights the vulnerability of diabetes care when it depends on a small number of peptide drugs from limited manufacturing sources.
The numbers in context
119,069 fewer semaglutide prescriptions than predicted · 17% semaglutide decrease · 53% dulaglutide increase · 31,953 more dulaglutide prescriptions than predicted
How the study worked
Researchers performed a retrospective analysis of Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) prescription data for 2021-2022. They used Holt-Winters statistical modeling to predict expected prescription volumes and compared these predictions against actual prescriptions supplied, identifying the gap caused by supply shortages.
Who was studied
Australian type 2 diabetes patients receiving GLP-1 agonist prescriptions through the PBS system
What this study cannot tell us
This is an Australian-specific analysis that may not directly reflect shortage patterns in other countries. The study used prescription data rather than patient outcomes, so it can't assess whether the shortages caused harm to individual patients. The Holt-Winters model assumes continuation of prior trends, which may not account for organic changes in prescribing behavior unrelated to shortages.
How to read the evidence
This is moderate-strength evidence from a national prescription database analysis. The large-scale PBS data provides reliable aggregate prescribing patterns, though the study cannot assess individual patient outcomes.
When this study was published
Published in 2024 using 2021-2022 data. GLP-1 agonist supply has improved in some markets since then, but shortages continue globally as demand remains high.
The bigger picture
GLP-1 agonist shortages have become a global health issue as demand for these drugs — driven partly by their use for weight loss — outstrips manufacturing capacity. This study provides concrete prescription data showing how shortages cascade between related drugs. As more GLP-1 drugs enter the market (tirzepatide, survodutide, etc.), manufacturing diversity may help prevent future supply crises.
Questions still open
- Did the prescription disruptions lead to worse blood sugar control or health outcomes for affected diabetes patients?
- How much of the semaglutide shortage was driven by off-label weight loss prescriptions diverting supply from diabetes patients?
- What manufacturing or policy changes would prevent cascading shortages of GLP-1 agonists in the future?
Common questions
Why did semaglutide shortages occur in Australia?
What happened to diabetes patients who couldn't get semaglutide?
Read the original research
Impact of semaglutide and dulaglutide shortages on Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme prescriptions supplied for type 2 diabetes treatment.
Australian journal of general practice, 53(1-2), 57-61
Citation
Phakey, Sachin; Shen, Angeline. (2024). Impact of semaglutide and dulaglutide shortages on Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme prescriptions supplied for type 2 diabetes treatment.. Australian journal of general practice, 53(1-2), 57-61. https://doi.org/10.31128/AJGP/04-23-6814