Tirzepatide is cost-saving at 15 mg and highly cost-effective at 10 mg for obese T2DM patients over 30 years | Research

The takeaway

Over 30 years, tirzepatide 15 mg saved ,409 while gaining 0.69 QALYs (cost-saving), and 10 mg cost ,855 more for 0.60 QALYs (ICER ,092/QALY)—both well below the ,000 WTP threshold with 98.5-98.9% probability of cost-effectiveness.

Cost-saving at 15 mg
Tirzepatide 15 mg saved ,409 while adding 0.69 QALYs over 30 years—making it one of the rare medications that both saves money and improves health

What the researchers found

TZP 15 mg: cost-saving (-,409) + 0.69 QALYs + 0.58 life-years. TZP 10 mg: +,855 cost, 0.60 QALYs, ICER ,092/QALY. Both: >98.5% probability cost-effective at K WTP. Treatment effects assumed for 5 years.

Why it matters

Cost-effectiveness drives insurance coverage and access. Showing tirzepatide 15 mg is actually cost-SAVING (not just cost-effective) provides the strongest economic argument for coverage.

How the study worked

BRAVO Diabetes Model (validated). 30-year time horizon. US healthcare perspective. SURMOUNT-2 trial efficacy data. GoodRx medication prices. One-way + probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

What this study cannot tell us

Model-based projections. Treatment effect assumed 5 years (conservative). US prices. SURMOUNT-2 population. Drug prices may change.

How to read the evidence

Validated economic model with sensitivity analysis. Based on RCT efficacy data. Strong methodology.

When this study was published

Published in 2025.

The bigger picture

At ICER ,092/QALY (or cost-saving), tirzepatide is among the most cost-effective interventions in medicine—comparable to or better than statins and many cancer screenings.

Questions still open

Would real-world adherence rates change cost-effectiveness?
Is the 5-year treatment effect assumption too conservative?
Should this data mandate insurance coverage of tirzepatide?

Common questions

Is tirzepatide worth the cost?

According to this analysis, tirzepatide 15 mg actually SAVES money over 30 years (,409 saved) while adding 0.69 quality-adjusted life years. Even at 10 mg, the cost per quality life-year gained (,092) is far below the standard threshold of ,000—making it one of the most cost-effective treatments available.

Why would a weight loss drug save money?

By preventing diabetes complications (heart attacks, kidney failure, amputations) that are extremely expensive to treat. The drug cost is offset by fewer hospitalizations, fewer medications for complications, and longer, healthier life. At 15 mg, the savings from prevented complications actually exceed the drug's cost.

Read the original research

Long-term cost-effectiveness of tirzepatide for individuals with type 2 diabetes and comorbid obesity.

Diabetes, obesity & metabolism, 27(8), 4288-4299

View on PubMed ↗Publisher’s paper ↗

Citation

Tang, Man; Shi, Lizheng; Guan, Dawei; Winberg, Debra; Tang, Tiange; Shao, Hui; Fonseca, Vivian. (2025). Long-term cost-effectiveness of tirzepatide for individuals with type 2 diabetes and comorbid obesity.. Diabetes, obesity & metabolism, 27(8), 4288-4299. https://doi.org/10.1111/dom.16466